South Asia is a promising region for coffee imports to meet expanding demand in the United States and diversify supply beyond South America. India, with a history of coffee farming, is a country with significant potential to become a heavyweight in the coffee industry.
It is no secret that Americans love their coffee. In 2024, an astounding 2 out of 3 Americans reported they had consumed coffee the previous day, the highest rate of any beverage. This represents a 37% increase in consumption since 2004. Coffee’s popularity is also underscored by price peaking in February of 2025. The United States is a heavy consumer of both robusta beans, typically used in espresso and instant coffee, and arabica beans, which are less acidic and considered higher quality. However, this is driven only partially by increasing demand; it is also due to challenges in the coffee supply. Inclement weather including drought has impacted coffee farm yields in Brazil and Colombia, the two largest suppliers of coffee beans to the United States. Partners in the Indo-Pacific have been heavily impacted by weather conditions as well, with Indonesia and Vietnam—both top 10 sources for US coffee imports, and the top exporters of robusta beans worldwide—facing difficulties. Vietnam, the second biggest coffee producer overall and largest robusta producer, continues to face tough forecasts for its coffee production, estimated to be 10-16% lower in the 2024-2025 cycle. These factors have contributed to the gross price for coffee beans surging over 100% from $190 per pound to $420 per pound in just one year from February 2024 to 2025.
Diversification of suppliers is one solution amidst difficulties in the coffee supply chain. Among trading partners with potential to expand their coffee production, India and its robusta-focused coffee industry stands out. Though often regarded as a primarily tea-drinking country, India’s coffee market is experiencing rapid growth: it sees a roughly 10% annual increase, much faster than the global average of 2-3%. This surge has driven increased production and exports. India’s coffee production for 2022-2023 was 352,000 metric tonnes, ranking sixth in the world by volume. Some 80% of this output was exported to destinations in Europe, particularly Italy, Germany, and Belgium. While Vietnam and other major coffee suppliers are struggling, India’s coffee is booming: 2024 exports are set to grow 10% as the price for robusta beans nears a 15-year high. India also produces arabica beans in the state of Andhra Pradesh, and although this represents a small portion of India’s total coffee production, the arabica farms are “key” for India’s coffee strategy, and fits into India’s “One District One Product” initiative, providing government support for unique products across India.
While much of India’s coffee exports are destined for Europe, the United States is a growing market as well. This is particularly true of Indian specialty coffee, which represents the highest quality grade a blend or bean can receive, as judged by the Specialty Coffee Association. Indian specialty coffee exports to the United States measured a humble $1 million in the 2019-20 season but has since exploded to $61 million in the 2022-23 year. Despite comprising a portion of India’s coffee exports, this figure proves that Indian product has demand in the United States.
This is further evidenced by the recent rise in coffee roasteries and shops focused on Indian coffee. Though still in a grassroots stage, the Indian American diaspora has cultivated a thriving community of roasters, coffee carts, and cafes featuring Indian coffee as their highlighted product. While India is still primarily associated with tea, especially Chai, Indian coffee has carved a niche with growing interest, especially in California's Bay Area. These businesses have been welcomed as the Bay Area is home to the fifth-largest Indian diaspora in the United States. With Indian immigrants often struggling to find flavors of their home in the United States, these businesses have helped alleviate this issue through coffee. For example, Kaveri Coffee Works, a coffee roastery launched in 2019 by an Indian immigrant, offers a chicory coffee blend as an homage to the wildly popular drink consumed throughout India. The roastery is also experimenting with “monsooned coffee,” a process in which robusta beans are exposed to monsoon conditions, resulting in a milder, mellower flavor.
India’s coffee industry is still brewing momentum, and if Vietnam continues to face difficulties in production, India may cement itself as a heavyweight exporter focused around robusta beans. Given the prominence of espresso-based specialty drinks, this would be a welcome development for the United States to build resilient supply chains. Keep a close eye on developments in the coffee industry and Indian exports for further developments.
Tommis Meyer is a Spring 2025 Young Professional Intern at the East-West Center in Washington. Tommis is also in his final semester pursuing an undergraduate degree in Global International Relations at American University under its Joint Degree Program with Ritsumeikan University in Japan.